Saves and Opportunity

UPDATED with the full 3 year SVO chart below.

I know that this is the time of year when we all start to look closer at pre-season positional rankings (Which will be expanded by the end of this month) and begin to formulate our draft day approach.  I just wanted to mention one thing about closer rankings.  If you want to find the true value of a  closer,  take a close look at the numbers with SV’s thrown out of the equation.  For instance, here’s Brian Fuentes’s numbers (excluding SV’s) compared to K-Rod last season:

Granted, K-Rod was battling ankle problems early in the season and his K rate did return once he was healthy.  The point is that all in all the numbers actually favored Fuentes.   This does not mean that Fuentes jumps to ahead of K-Rod in the rankings, but does go to show that the raw numbers Fuentes put up could have translated to 40+ SV’s if he were in Anaheim in 2008.  What teams created the most save opportunities (SVO’s) last season?  In 2008 The Angels of course were ranked 1st.  The Rockies were 19th.  The Met’s by the way, ranked 3rd. 

Update: Continuing on the point I was trying to make.  Don’t draft a closer because you think he’s going to get ”x” amount of saves.  A good closer is a good closer period, but any given closer has very little control over his SV totals.  Let me explain.  In 2006 Mariano Rivera only had 34 SV’s yet he threw 75 innings.  His low SV total wasn’t because he was bad that season, his ERA was 1.80 and WHIP was 0.96, it was because he only had 37 total SVO’s.  The year before Rivera had 47 SVO’s and converted 43.  As you’ll see in the chart below, there is just about zero correlation between bullpen/closer/manager/talent and SVO’s for that season.  Why did Francisco Rodriguez get 23 more SVO’s in 2008 than the year before?  The Angels still had Scot Shields to set him up and even added Arredondo to the mix.  It’s not as though the Angels needed K-Rod to save 62 games. 

Note: A Save Opportunity is defined as;  A pitcher is credited with a save opportunity when he enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs or with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck.  Thus not all SVO’s are credited to only the closer.

You’ll notice that the Angels are ranked first, but that is in large part due to the spike in SVO’s to 89 in 2008.  Don’t expect anything close to 89 SVO’s in 2009.  You can see that, with the exception of a few, most teams have a noticeable fluctuation from year to year.  In 2007 the Mets had Billy Wagner and good seasons from Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano and Joe Smith.  Still they had only 57 total SVO’s.  With a mess of a bullpen in 2008 they managed 72 SVO’s (of which they converted 43 total). 

I may be getting away from the fantasy angle a bit here, but I’m trying to look at closers from a non-save perspective.  We can’t assume Papelbon will crack 40 SV’s for a second year in a row.  We can assume that he will continue to put up good ERA, WHIP and K numbers.  This is why I have K-Rod ranked below Joakim Soria and Brad Lidge.  When I release the entire closer rankings later this month, I’ll be sure to concentrate on showing the numbers and not so much the SV totals.  The bottom line is SV’s are a product of opportunity and that opportunity can fluctuate from year to year.  K-Rod was not better than Papelbon or Nathan in 2008, he simply had more opportunity.  When looking at closers, throw out the SV’s.