Top 12 for 2009: v3

I’ve made a couple changes.  Holliday drops because it looks as though he may be traded and Jimmy Rollins enters the top 12.

1. Hanley Ramirez SS FLA- The only category he is lacking in 2008 is RBI.  A move to the 3 hole would help, but as good as Hanley has been he’s only 25 andjust now entering the prime of his career.  He’s got the most upside of any player in the first round to be a 5 category stud.

2. Alex Rodriguez 3B NYY- Coming off a monster 2007, A-Rod has disappointed as the number one overall in most drafts in 2008.  Even taking away the short time on the DL, A-Rod hasn’t been 07-like, but still remains a top tier hitter.  Let’s face the facts.  A-Rod is 33 (34 next July) typically these years (non-steroids era) are the front to middle end of a players decline.  However, A-Rod is not your typical player and should continue a .300 30-40 HR 100 RBI 15 SB pace for the next couple years.

3. Jose Reyes SS NYM (Up from 4) - He’s Hanley without the power, though it is just a matter of time till Reyes cracks the 20 HR mark.  He’s shown he can hit for power (19 in 2006) and his 50-80 SB potential makes his value skyrocket.  Also entering his prime years, if Reyes continues to improve his OBP, he’s a guy who could single handedly dominate the SB category while making great contributions in all other categories.

4. Ryan Braun OF MIL (Up from 5) - Just think A-Rod in his prime with a few less HR and SB.  Yea, that’s how good Braun can be.  If he can avoid small nagging injuries .300/40/120/15 is a reality if not more. 

5. Albert Pujols 1B STL (Up from 6) -  Pujols did have surgery this offseason and is expected to be fine by spring training.  There isn’t anything I can say about this guy except that he doesn’t stead many bases.  That’s no cause for complaint, but unless he hits .350 again it keeps him behind the 5 category guys listed above. 

6. Matt Holliday OF COL (Down from 3) - This is why true rankings don’t settle in until January/Early February.  It seems more and more likely that Holliday will get traded.  There has been a significant batting average difference in his home/road splits.  Since 2004, his first season, Holliday has hit .357 at home and .280 on the road.  I think Holliday is a .300 hitter no matter where he players, but if or when he’s traded the days of .320-.340 may be done. 

7. Miguel Cabrera 3B,1B DET- An early season slump had many fantasy owners wanting to unload Cabrera for pennies on the dollar.  In the end Cabrera set career highs in HR and RBI though his AVG fell due to the slow start.  In his second year in the AL, expect the AVG to come back up to the .310-.330 range.

8. David Wright 3B NYM - Wright’s numbers in AVG and SB are down from a year ago, but that shouldn’t scare you away from taking him high in 2009.  Entering the peak years of his prime, Wright has shown the base of what he’s capable of (.325/30/107/34 in 2007).  His power seems to be in the 30 HR range, but it’s the AVG and SB that can make him a true stud. 

9. Grady Sizemore OF CLE - The only thing keeping Sizemore out of the top 5 is his low AVG.  Entering 2009 at the magical age of 27, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sizemore get even better to the tune of .280/40/40.

10.  Chase Utley 2B PHI - Though Utley has really come down to earth after the all-star break, he’s still the .300/30/100/15 guy we thought he’d be.  Look for more of the same in 2009.

11. Jimmy Rollins SS PHI - I bring Rollins back into the top 12 because even in a down year he stole 47 bases.  I think .290-.300/20/40 with 100+ runs is a good base for 2009.

12. Ryan Howrad 1B PHI (Down from 11) - No, I didn’t rank three Phillies in a row just cause the won the World Series!  A strong finish to 08 has Ryan Howard once again in the mix for the first round.  While his strikeouts are incredibly high, his power is just plain incredible.  His AVG dropped for a second straight season, but don’t be surprised if 09 is a bounce back to the .270 range.

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