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THE 2009 FB365 DRAFT GUIDE

IT’S FINALY HERE!!! THE 2009 FB365 DRAFT GUIDE!!! O.K. so it’s not complete yet, but I work for a living you know!  I should have more done by Monday including more player pages, full pitcher rankings and the top 300 rankings.  In the meantime click here, browse through, enjoy and email me with any questions at contactfb365@gmail.com

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Who You Want/Don’t Want: Cardinals, Brewers

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We continue on in this series with the Cardinals and Brewers.  Interesting, this is the first time we disagree on only not one, but two players!

FB365: Cardinals

Looking for a cheap source of power?  How does .265-.270 and 30-35 HR’s sound in the 17^th round?  That’s what you can get if you draft my “guy to have in 2009″ Rick Ankiel.  While Ankiel does come with some concerns over health, there is no doubt in his power.  His AB/HR was 15.6  in 2007 and 16.5 in 2008.  Take the 16.3 AB/HR rate from last season, apply it to 550 AB’s and you get about 34 HR’s.  Apply it to 600 AB’s and you get about 37 HR’s.  While the AVG may not reach much above .270, that’s the same type of production (if not better) projected from Carlos Pena who is being drafted an astounding 12 rounds earlier.  Pena has never reached over 490 AB’s in a season.  All things equal, if I had to choose 550 AB’s from either Pena or Ankiel, I’d take Ankiel 10 times out of 10. 

Speaking of cheap power, Troy Glaus provided that last season.  However, it was announced late last month that Glaus would be out for 12 weeks due to shoulder surgery.  Knowing this, fantasy baseball mock drafters have let Glaus drop from an ADP of round 17 to round 22.  Even when Glaus comes back in mid to late April, he’ll have had no spring training and very few minor league AB’s.  Add that on top of the fact that the surgery was on his right shoulder, his throwing shoulder and the shoulder that provides the power behind a right handed swing.  His AVG was destined to come down from .270 anyway.  I’m not convinced, given his injury history and this current shoulder problem, that he will be 100% for much of the 2009 season.  I’d rather take my chances on a guy like Billy Butler or Kevin Kouzmanoff, who are being drafted around the same time.

Brett Greenfield, fantasyphenoms.com: Cardinals

My guy to have in 2009 is Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is the most reliable starter on this team. He’s given three straight seasons with an ERA below 3.70 and last year went 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He’s perfectly healthy this year and can be had in rounds 13-15. He may not strike out a ton of batters, but he can be a reliable #4 SP for your team. 

My guy not to have in 2009 is Rick Ankiel. The former pitcher strikes out roughly 25% of the time he’s up, which led to…READ MORE

Fantasy Impact: Early Spring Training

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Making really good progress on the draft kit now.  Full positional rankings will begin posting either tomorrow or Wednesday.  In the meantime here are a few interesting stories…

Reyes, Soriano moving to the three spot? – I like this move for Soriano a lot better.  Where Reyes can steal upwards of 70 bases, Soriano may be better off getting his 15-20 and adding the RBI’s that come with batting third.  For Reyes, it’s all about getting on base, stealing second and scoring on a base hit.  If he bat’s third it would leave Luis Castillo to bat leadoff.  Not a great option to get on base, or steal a ton of bags. 

Looking toward the Phillies Lineup – Here’s the quote from the article,

“Manuel will play with some different batting orders in spring training, but he said he preferred the top of his lineup to go like this: Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Lefthanded-hitting Raul Ibanez and righthanded-hitting Jayson Werth are both candidates to hit fifth. “The lineup will work itself out,” Manuel said.”

I really like Shane Vicotrino this year.  If he can stick in the two spot we’re looking at the type of production described here.  I also really like Jayosn Werth in the five hole.  He’d be in prime RBI territory and have the protection of a solid veteran hitter in Ibanez behind him. 

Edwin Encarnacion signs a two year deal – The deal has incentives based on plate appearances.  When it comes to money, players have a funny way of showing more focus.  I like Encarnacion as a breakout candidate in 2009.  He should be a steal of a deal in round 10. 

From Part Time to Full Time: NL

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Part two in this series looks through the National league.

Also, these lists are very preliminary.  As position battles are won and lost over spring training, I’ll follow up and make adjustments.

NL East

Atlanta – Matt Diaz can hit .290-.300 with limited power, but has never reached over 360 AB’s in a single season.  As of now Josh Anderson is the starting centerfielder and could be a deep-deep sleeper.  He may be able to maintain an AVG around .290 with 30+ SB’s.  I haven’t been mentioning pitchers, but Mike Gonzalez looks like a real nice option for cheap saves on draft day.

Florida – Cameron Maybin gets all the hype for his 5 category potential.  He’ll have to learn the strike zone first before that potential is realized.  All Cody Ross has done is hit for power when he gets the AB’s.  He looks to get the chance to start everyday in Florida and could produce…Read More